NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-8)
I have many reasons for why I believe the Colts will win and cover against the Jets that have nothing to do with the fact that no rookie quarterback has ever won a Conference Championship game.
Let's start with Indianapolis' defence.
Yes New York will be able to move the ball on the ground against them, but not enough to score touchdowns. They may be able to pick up a couple first downs but I don't see them hitting the end zone more than once. Remember the Colts were able to shut down the Ravens potent rushing attack, I see the same result on Sunday vs. New York.
As for Mark Sanchez, well I think we can all agree that he has over achieved this season. he played very well against Cincinnati, was very ordinary against the Chargers and I think his regression comes to an end at the hands of the Colts D. Everyone knows the names Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeny but their secondary is as good as their defensive line. CB Kelvin Hayden and FS Antoine Bethea are both Pro Bowl calibre talents and more than a match for the Jets WR's.
Finally their is Peyton Manning. Not much needs to be said about his skills. He won't be rattled if Darrelle Revis takes away Reggie Wayne, he'll simply check down to Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie. Right now their is no better player than Peyton Manning, he may have had better statistical seasons in the past, but Peyton has never had a better season.
He lost his coach, Marvin Harrison is gone and he had to work Garcon and Collie into the Colts system. Heck the Colts "system" is Peyton Manning. You don't think about the Colts coaching staff or their skill position players when you think about the team's "Offensive System", you just think about Peyton Manning.
When you look back at Joe Montana you also think about Jerry Rice, "West Coast Offense" and Bill Walsh.
But when it comes Peyton Manning and his success you really only think about his skills as a passer and as a leader. He will lead his team back to the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis wins 27-13
Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3)
I just hope this is a good game. The Playoffs this year has been almost a complete dud. Yeah the Jets surprising playoff run is a nice story but their games have been ugly.
Eagles/Cowboys, Cowboys/Vikings, Cardinals/Saints ... all blowouts.
This game has the makings to be a classic, which is why I'm nervous since all those other games were supposed to be great as well.
Another bad sign, at least for me, I think this game is an easy call.
I like New Orleans to win and cover.
The main reason is home field advantage.
When playing at their Dome Minnesota's pass rush is unbelievable. The crowd noise makes communication between the opposing teams quarterback and offensive line just so difficult. On the majority of pass plays the defensive ends have a half step advantage over the tackles because of their difficulty hearing the snap count. You saw that in Minnesota's 34-3 dismantling of the Cowboys.
But they won't have that advantage in New Orleans.
Which means it up to these guys: Benny Sapp, Tyrell Johnson, Madieu Williams and a really banged up Antoine Winfield to cover all the Saints wide receivers.
I see Drew Brees getting just enough time to throw and I see him having a huge game against Minnesota.
I see after this game Minnesota's front office talking about how they have to upgrade their secondary.
Hopefully I also see a good game.
I expect Minnesota to put up a bunch of points themselves, but not nearly enough to keep up with New Orleans. Maybe if Adrian Peterson was playing like ... Adrian Peterson I would give the Vikings a serious chance to win this game, but he isn't and I'm not.
New Orleans wins 31-24
ps: Did you see how I didn't write the words "Brett Favre" even once? Bet you didn't think I could that, did you?